Barcelona and Budapest Outright Preview

The European clay swing is well underway now as the tour moves on from Monte Carlo to Barcelona and Budapest. One tournament is a 500 level event and one is a 250 level event and consequently, there is a massive disparity in the fields.
In addition to the disparity, is the presence of Rafael Nadal in Barcelona. Some would question his decision to continually play here, as he wore down last year in his loss at Rome, but, the tournament was part of La Decima in 2017 and is surely part of his goal to complete La Undecima in 2018 at Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Roland Garros. His participation makes the handicapping for Barcelona very different from Budapest.

BARCELONA

Rafa

He changes the complexion of any clay tournament that he plays in Europe. Last week in Monte Carlo he cruised through the field, never losing a set, never losing more than four games in a set, and beating top ten staples like Dominic Thiem, Grigor Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori. It doesn’t seem like the class of his opponent matters, the match is on Rafa’s racquet. If he is on the ball, he wins.
Therefore, his outright price is -225. Funnily enough, there is probably value in that number. Last week he played 5 matches, the lowest moneyline available was -700 versus Thiem, the rest were all between -1600 and -2500. If you were to parlay his five closing lines it works out to -240 (depending on the number you could get). He is going to have to play five matches here as well… will he get even bigger moneylines?
One option could be to bet him 2–0 parlayed across every match. The average 2–0 price was between -450 and -700, with the odd one out being against Thiem. If those prices repeat and he successfully gets through without dropping a set again (he hasn’t dropped a set here in the last two years, and the last six titles here have all come without droppping a set!!!) that parlay would pay somewhere around +140.

Any which way the top half of the draw is studied, Rafa ruins it. The second quarter is easily the most intriguing with such names as David Goffin, Karen Khachanov, Hyeon Chung, Bautista Agut and Ivo Karlovic. Any of them could win the quarter and yet be unhedgeable in the semis against Rafa (he’s probably -1000 against any one of them). A good bet may be Chung to win his quarter which would not get in the way of a Rafa future or a Rafa 2–0 rollover parlay.

The Bottom Half

Whether you play Rafa or not in some way, the only real value on an outright would have to come from the bottom half. And the bottom half contains Thiem. He showed that, despite being dismantled by Rafa, he is probably the second or third best clay player in the world right now. And with Novak in the top half of the bracket who stops a repeat of last years Rafa/Thiem final?

Well, Thiem’s quarter is loaded with his nemesis Verdasco (0–3 h2h) and two guys who have pushed him before, ARV and Schwartzman. On top of that, Thiem is only +650. Rafa was -700 on the moneyline against Thiem in Monte Carlo. That is not even hedgeable if he makes the final.

The odds of anyone beating Thiem should he finally crack Verdasco are slim, so, the task becomes finding someone with a big enough price to be valuable as a hedge pretty early on. The fourth quarter is the most wide open with Carreno Busta not in great form, Dimitrov coming off a deep run in Monte Carlo and Pablo Cuevas also not showing great form (and all three with very little past success here). So, this is the spot to look. South American clay players generally don’t dominate on European clay but, Nicolas Jarry is young enough to maybe start bucking that trend. He had a decent Golden Swing, has above average hold/break numbers on clay for his age and can hold his own with big servers. At 200/1, if he can sneak past Carreno Busta, he will be in great shape to make some money.

Budapest

The Budapest field is much more interesting than its counterpart this week. With Barcelona on-going, the only player in the top 30 who is present is Lucas Pouille and he is the betting favorite and defending champion.

Troicki and Fucsovics are two guys who could surprise Pouille in the top quarter but, both are in terrible form and really should merit higher prices.

Gasquet is the top pick in the second quarter and he should breeze through it. It’s easy to see him in the semis but, at +275 (equal to Pouille) there is hardly value there.

So, it’s to the bottom half again for an outright this week. And the bottom half is really a dog’s breakfast. The top two seeds, Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov, are in terrible form and are terrible on clay, respectively.

All the players who have solid hold/break stats and good history are in the top half of the bracket… except Paolo Lorenzi. Lorenzi is in terrible form, so, it’s a little nerve racking to pick him but, he made the semis here last year and he keeps his hold/break numbers up around 100. His draw is not difficult, as he should get by Basilashvili in the first and then he gets Shapo who is uncomfortable on clay. Then he would face Seppi in the quarters and Struff or Dzumhur in the semis. These are all beatable guys for Paolo and 33/1 is a solid price.

Seppi and Struff are both tempting on the bottom half, considering their runs in Monte Carlo but, the price is not great on either and neither have played in Budapest before.

Rafa 2–0 rollover if available

Jarry +20000

Lorenzi +3300

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